$1000 Harris Miller Bet Goes Unanswered
$1000 Harris Miller Bet Goes Unanswered
Date: Friday, October 11, 2002 9:03 PM
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It's been one month since Kim Berry placed a bet with Harris Miller,
president of the ITAA. So far Miller has ignored Berry's bet and hasn't
answered his emails. Since Miller has no problem going in front of Congress
to espouse his shortage theories it's surprising that he is evading this
bet. Surely money can't be the problem since Harris Miller is a very wealthy
man. $1000 would probably amount to 1 months payment on his Mercedes Benz.
Kim Berry sent two challenges to Harris Miller. One of them is below
followed by an interesting article.
Date: Wednesday, September 04, 2002
Dear ITAA And MCD Research,
You have consistently maintained there is a shortage of qualified IT
workers, and project that 500,000 positions will go unfilled do to lack of
positions.over the next year. You advocate a continued influx of foreign
labor, causing 90% of IT positions to now be filled by new immigrants -
primarily H1-b from India.
My long-time associate and former co-worker got was off two weeks ago. He is
willing to work anywhere from San Jose to Portland. But so far his most
promising prospect is "tow truck driver." (He knew the layoff was coming so
has been seeking other work for some time, without success.)
Can you please find some employers for my friend, or concede that your
studies are fraudlent attempts to flood the IT market, to further enrich the
CEOs of Intel, Oracle, Cisco, and Microsoft - already among the richest men
in the world.
If not, can you please identify what "skill" my friend is lacking that is
making him unemployable?
My offer to ITAA and MCD stands: I'll wager $1000 that your study is flawed,
and that there will not be over 1,000,000 new IT jobs created in 2003, with
500,000 going unfilled. Are either of you willing to back your studies and
press releases? You are gambling with people's careers, but will not risk
$1000?
References:
http://www.itaa.org/news/pr/PressRelease.cfm?ReleaseID=1020695700
http://www.mdcresearch.com/
http://www.washtech.org/wt/contact/
http://www.familyinjustice.com/h1b/ (my fact page - will post this email
there))
Sincerely,
Kim Berry
Sacramento, CA
http://www.washtech.org/wt/printer.php?ID_Content=377
October 7, 2002
Can you find a job for my friend?
WashTech News
By Jeff Nachtigal
Programmer bets IT lobbying org that it can't find job for unemployed friend
'I'll wager $1000 that your study is flawed, and that there will not be over
1,000,000 new IT jobs created in 2003.'
Kim Berry
Sacramento programmer
Kim Berry looked at his diminishing stack of chips and decided to call the
corporate PR bluff. To the tune of $1000. A real bet, with real money on the
line.
Berry, a programmer living in Sacramento, read one too many studies put out
by the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) trumpeting a
plethora of available IT jobs to be had in the near future. He doesn't
believe the ITAA rhetoric, and when his friend lost his programming job,
enough was enough.
"My offer to ITAA and MDC stands [Market Decisions Corporation conducts
workforce studies for the ITAA]: I'll wager $1000 that your study is flawed,
and that there will not be over 1,000,000 new IT jobs created in 2003, with
500,000 going unfilled. Are either of you willing to back your studies and
press releases?" Berry wrote in an email dated several weeks after the study
came out.
"It's not only that they say there are jobs, but also that there's going to
be so many jobs that they can't even fill jobs they have - 500,000 going
unfilled because they can't find people. My challenge to them is - name one
job?" Berry explained later.
It would seem a hugely lopsided bet. Find but one job for an out-of-work
programmer? Surely the ITAA would be able to do that?
But they won't even bite.
That's because there's more to this bet than meets the eye.
If you look at the high-tech industry as a card game, everything has its
place at the table: Government is the dealer, the economy is the bank, and
big companies are the high rollers. Workers hope for a lucky hand and
high-tech jobs are the currency around which the game revolves. Big spenders
don't like to lose, so an ace often slips under cuff-linked sleeves.
In this high stakes game, the ace of hearts doesn't represent stock options
or fat executive incentive packages -- the lucky card for employers is the
H-1B visa program.
A recent workforce study from the ITAA reported that 500,000 information
technology workers had lost their jobs in 2001, dropping the number employed
in the field from 10.4 million to 9.9 million. Somewhat incredulously, given
the foreseeable gloomy economic outlook, the study, "Bouncing Back: Jobs,
Skills and the Continuing Demand for IT Workers," released on May 6, went on
to state that over one million new information technology jobs would open in
the coming year.
Although he speaks in an exceedingly measured, thoughtful tone, Berry's
disgust with the ITAA is clearly evident, and it goes beyond a rose-colored
PR report speculating economic upturn. He'd be elated to know his
programming position in a three-person company was safe, a position which he
says is currently anything but secure. What really makes Berry incensed is
what he believes to be the ITAA's ulterior motive - pumping up the H-1B visa
program.
Berry graduated at the top of his class in 1990 from Sacramento State
University. Now, with 12 years of programming experience, he believes that
the skewed workforce studies promoted by the ITAA at the behest of big
corporations give the false impression that there is a shortage of skilled
IT workers. This gives the government reason to keep the visa program going,
which can allow more than 150,000 foreign guest workers entry into U.S.
high-tech jobs each year.
Since Berry's challenge, the ITAA released an update to the study
"Since Berry's challenge, the ITAA released an update to the study on
September 23, acknowledging that things don't look as good for high tech as
they previously thought: Since the start of the year, "demand forecast by IT
managers for new workers has dropped sharply." The catch in the ITAA's
study -- and there is always a catch in this game -- is the added spin.
Because the driving force behind ITAA studies is to forecast an "up"
economy, they always forecast a shortage of tech workers. This allows big
companies to argue in Senate hearings that the H-1B program is a continuing
necessity, regardless of the unemployment numbers.
"Today's survey results are one more indication that where the overall
economy may be recovering, the IT marketplace is still coping with
recession," ITAA President Harris N. Miller was quoted in an ITAA press
release.
"Hiring managers appear to be less bullish than at the start of the year --
even as many forecasters have predicted an IT industry turnaround in 2003.
My concern is that a sluggish job market today could turn off many
prospective information systems and computer science students, resulting in
rampant IT talent shortages a few years down the road."
When contacted about Berry's bet, ITAA spokesperson Tinabeth Burton had no
comment; instead she provided the latest ITAA data on the demand for IT
workers.
While the ITAA says skilled tech workers are in short supply, organizations
such as WashTech/CWA and the Programmers Guild say too many H-1B visas are
creating a big oversupply of tech workers, making it harder for unemployed
American tech workers to find jobs.
How big is the H-1B visa issue? In 2001, the INS issued 163,000 H-1B visas.
The total is a sizable chunk of the IT industry. The Department of Commerce,
in its report Digital Economy 2000 (June 5, 2000), found that H-1Bs now
accounted for 28 percent of all information technology industry hires
requiring at least a Bachelor's degree.
WashTech/CWA advocates that the H-1B program be scaled back to its late
1990s level of 65,000 workers per year, and calls for a strengthening of
requirements that employers document that they cannot find any suitably
skilled U.S. workers and prove that they pay a "prevailing wage" to any H-1B
workers they do employ. While current law has provisions requiring employers
to pay a prevailing wage to H-1B employees, the INS and Department of Labor
do not independently verify whether U.S. tech employers actually do so.
Dr. Norman Matloff, in testimony to the U.S. House Judiciary Committee
Subcommittee on Immigration, has argued that H-1B workers often aren't as
skilled as they are billed to be - giving rise to the question of whether
companies want qualified workers, or are more interested in fielding cheap
labor.
For H-1Bs who seek to become U.S. citizens, Berry notes, their prospects
hinge on them staying with one employer for three years in order to get a
green card. "It's a strong incentive to tough it out," he says. "If their
employer says work Saturday and Sunday, work 14 hours, they're almost like
slave labor. They can't go across the street for another job, they're
indentured to the employer that sponsored them."
Berry admits he holds no real grudge against the ITAA, or even the richest
corporations pushing for H-1B visas; he blames California Senators Diane
Feinstein and Barbara Boxer for ignoring his claims.
"My anger is really at the government for believing such flawed studies. I
view ITAA as a representative of corporations, just as a union is a
representative of workers. You can't really be angry with them for acting in
the companies' interests; it's the government that could pull the plug at
any time. You can blame the government for allowing thousands of H-1Bs to
enter the market for jobs that are never advertised, never posted. It's all
a secret."
Berry has peppered the ITAA and Senators Feinstein and Boxer with regular
emails calling for an immediate suspension of the H-1B program until the
ITAA or some other entity can provide documentation of employers being
unable to fill positions.
Senator Feinstein finally did reply, offering comments about her voting
record and pro-American worker concerns, sidestepping Berry's half-million
unemployed workers.
"When an increase in the H1-B visa program was approved by Congress in 2000,
there were not enough well-qualified American workers to fill all the jobs
in the high-tech sector...While I supported the legislation approving H1-B
visa issuance, I do not support replacing American workers with foreign-born
workers. I believe we must work to reduce our dependency on foreign
workers," Senator Feinstein wrote to Berry in an email dated October 2,
2002.
What does the man who stands to be the main beneficiary of this bet think?
'I find the prediction for next year of a half million unfilled IT jobs to
be absurdly exaggerated.'
Tim Mahan
unemployed programmer
"I find the prediction for next year of a half million unfilled IT jobs to
be absurdly exaggerated, based on what I see in the job postings," said
unemployed programmer Tim Mahan, adopting a more sanguine approach to his
job hunt than his former work associate Berry.
Mahan was laid off from his position with a semiconductor manufacturing
software vendor two months ago. He has posted his resumes on job sites and
responded to numerous ads, with no success.
Mahan has a computer science degree from Chico State University and seven
years of high-tech experience, and is willing to move anywhere on the West
Coast for a job.
Mahan considers the ITAA's studies little more than industry leverage tools.
"These predictions by ITAA are meant only to increase the perceived need
relative to the size of the labor pool for two basic purposes: One is to
lower high-tech labor costs with greater competition for job openings;
another is to attract new people to the field in order to give the employers
bigger choices for up-to-date laborers at entry-level wages."
Berry's emails and voice mails to the ITAA and MCD have gone unanswered. So
far, no takers for his bet.
Although the ITAA's follow-up to the Bouncing Back study is vindication, of
sorts, in that it admits a shortage of jobs at present, in ignoring Berry
the ITAA clearly is "checking the bet" to avoid a messy confrontation.
"If they would call back and be willing to debate on phone, or in the press,
I'd be more than willing to write a check, which would be a lot for me - I'm
willing to risk it for the principle of it," Berry said.
"If they're going to put these studies out they should be willing to back
them up."
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